What CEOs Can Learn from History and Current Events

For over thirty years President Trump built his reputation on his ability to negotiate. His book, The Art of the Deal, was a popular read for those interested in developing their own skills.

Many voted for him because they believed that as president he would do amazing things for them through his skills. That was before negotiations with Iran proved the belief to be wrong.

This is not intended to be a political commentary, merely an observation from one who has studied history and business since the 1970s.

A key skill in good negotiations is to be willing to walk away. The Iranians have been beyond skillful at this. They understand that playing the long game may very well get them what they want. Just as Hitler outwitted Lord Halifax and Neville Chamberlain in 1938 in the sham over Czechoslovakia, Iranian negotiators understand that a combination of “wishful thinking” and ego will win in the end.

Neither the British nor the French had any desire to stand up to Hitler because twenty years earlier they had finished fighting World War One. For us, the ghost of Vietnam still hangs over us along with two Middle East wars since 9/11.

But when the Germans invaded Poland after the false appeasement of the Czech question, the British and the French declared war. And with the bulk of the German army in Poland, the French made a meager attempt to show that they were serious when they launched a brief invasion into Germany. When the German generals became alarmed, Hitler assured them that they need not be concerned because “The French lacked the will to fight.”

Sure enough, the French soon returned behind their border only to wait things out.

Hitler had brilliantly outsmarted an ally of both Czechoslovakia and Poland under the false pretense that perhaps things could still work out.

Just as he understood that neither the French nor the British people had the will to fight, the Iranians realize this as well. Americans are understandably concerned about the economy, and politicians are worried about the midterm elections.

Complicating matters further is the substantial number of weapons already used as both China and Russia sit happily on the sidelines, waiting. It is truly a no-win situation for the world, and just like the Nazis, the cruel leaders of Iran couldn’t care less.

So here are my five questions:

1. If you are a CEO or a chief negotiator for your company, what would you do?
2. If these were only business negotiations, would you be prepared to walk away?
3. If you did, what would the long-term cost to your shareholders be?
4. If you were the President, how would you negotiate differently with the Iranians?
5. How would this approach benefit the people you represent?

Once again, this is not intended to be political commentary, merely an opener for critical thinking and discussion.